Can a PEI HVAC company run A/B tests at all?

Rarely in the classic sense, because island-wide traffic is small. Switchback schedules on one bold change, judged on qualified calls and backed by call review, are usually the honest alternative.

How did the end of heat pump rebates affect demand?

We do not have data on that, and we will not guess. What we can say is that efficiencyPEI's residential heat pump equipment rebates ended on 15 April 2026, so comparisons across that date should not be read as marketing results.

What should a small PEI company focus on first?

Clean call counting and conversion research. With few calls, each miscounted one distorts the picture, and research often finds the biggest problems without any test.

HVAC Testing and Measurement in Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island is the clearest case in Canada for measurement over experimentation. The island's market is small, centred on Charlottetown and Summerside with Stratford, Three Rivers and Cornwall nearby, and few HVAC pages will ever reach a classic sample. Heat pumps are already the primary heating system for 36% of households, according to Statistics Canada, and the main equipment rebates ended in April 2026.

This page applies our methods to PEI. We are a marketing and measurement service and never install, repair or service HVAC equipment.

What small volume means in practice

Using the sample size formula, detecting even a large lift on a typical island service page could take most of a season. So the realistic options are:

measurement first, so every call is counted once and correctly, through measurement setup
research before testing, because a few hours of call listening may reveal what a test never could, via conversion research
one bold switchback test at a time, with a decision threshold set by the cost of being wrong, as explained in testing with few calls

A heat-pump market with oil still present

Statistics Canada's household heating table shows that in 2023, heat pumps were the primary system for 36% of PEI households, with oil at 28%, electricity at 18% and wood at 8%. Two different buyers stand out:

existing heat-pump owners, whose questions are about service, replacement and adding capacity
oil-heated homeowners, deciding whether to convert now that the main rebates have ended

Separate pages for each are a sensible hypothesis to test, but read our point below about program dates first.

Maritime winters

The Gulf of St. Lawrence takes the edge off PEI's cold, snowy winters. Storms can still cause short, sharp demand spikes. Because island traffic is small, a single storm week can dominate a switchback test, so decide in advance how storm weeks are treated and use a demand index from Search Console where you can, as in seasonality controls.

Programs to log, as of October 2026

efficiencyPEI residential heat pump equipment rebates ended on 15 April 2026. Purchases made between 15 April 2025 and 15 April 2026 may still qualify within one year of purchase.
The efficiencyPEI Free Heat Pump Program and the co-delivered oil-to-heat-pump offer are listed as closed; the closure date was not confirmed in our sources.
The Free Insulation Program is being expanded under a Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program agreement announced 29 June 2026; current intake details were not verified.

The 15 April 2026 end date is the critical one. Do not compare heat-pump enquiries from before it with enquiries after it and call the difference a marketing effect. Confirm current terms with efficiencyPEI before mentioning any program.

A planning example for a Charlottetown company (illustrative)

Picture a Charlottetown company that services existing heat pumps and installs new ones, receiving a few dozen calls a month across the island. Instead of a split test, the first month goes to measurement and research: every call logged with its source and outcome, and twenty calls scored blind for what callers asked. If many callers ask whether to repair or replace an older unit, the first test is a bold one, a replace-or-repair guide on the service page, run as an eight-week switchback through mid-winter. Storm weeks are flagged in advance. The decision threshold is set at 80% confidence, and nothing before 15 April 2026 is used as a baseline for heat-pump demand.

Regulators to know

For reference only:

How we approach a PEI program

Measure cleanly, research thoroughly, and run few tests, each one bold and timed away from program changes. For plans, see pricing. Call, text or email to talk through what is realistic for your volume.

Testing and measuring HVAC marketing in Prince Edward Island