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Testing and measuring HVAC marketing in Ontario

Ontario has more testable HVAC traffic than anywhere else in Canada, which makes classic split tests practical for many companies. It also has Save on Energy programs and a north-south climate gap to plan around.

Written by Ali Sedighi, MBALast updated:

Ontario is where HVAC testing is most practical. Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton and London are all large markets, and the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area alone can produce search volume that lets busy pages reach a classic sample in weeks rather than seasons. The cost of that opportunity is competition: more companies are bidding, testing and changing pages at the same time.

This page applies our methods to Ontario. We are a marketing and measurement service and never install, repair or service equipment. For broader Ontario HVAC marketing, our group's Ontario-focused brand is HVAC.Digital, alongside HVAC.Agency.

Volume that makes real experiments possible

With enough traffic, you can do things smaller markets cannot:

  • run proper concurrent A/B splits on replacement, repair and heat-pump pages
  • detect moderate effects, not only large ones, using the sample size formula
  • run geographic holdouts across matched municipalities, as described in holdout testing

The trap is running too many overlapping tests. Keep each test to its own page or audience, and keep an archive so ideas are not retested by accident.

A gas-led fuel mix with a propane tail

Statistics Canada's household heating table puts natural gas first among Ontario's primary heating fuels in 2023, at 58% of households, followed by electricity at 18% and propane at 4%. Gas furnace and boiler pages carry the most volume. Propane-heated homes are a small but distinct audience: a test of a "propane to heat pump" page needs rural traffic and a longer window.

Two climates, two calendars

Southern Ontario's winters are cold but moderated near the Great Lakes. Northern Ontario's heating seasons are longer and colder. In practice:

  • southern shoulder seasons are long and changeable, so tests that start in October or April need a demand index
  • northern deep winter is longer and steadier, a good window for repair-page tests
  • never pool north and south into one result

Method details are in seasonality controls.

Programs to log, as of October 2026

  • The Home Renovation Savings Program was open, with no closure notice on official pages as of 22 October 2026.
  • The Energy Affordability Program was open; its oil-to-heat-pump stream is described as available for a limited time, and we could not verify an end date.
  • No Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program agreement covered Ontario on 22 October 2026.

Because one stream has an unknown end date, heat-pump tests in Ontario should be short, checked against the program page weekly, and paused for review if it changes. Confirm details with Save on Energy before mentioning a program in any variant.

A planning example for a GTA company (illustrative)

Take a GTA company with separate furnace, boiler and heat-pump pages and steady Google Ads spend. With Ontario volumes, it can run two tests at once if they never share visitors. Test one is a concurrent split on the furnace replacement page, sized for a 25% relative lift and run for five full weeks in January and February, when demand is high and stable. Test two is a Google Ads custom experiment on the heat-pump campaign, comparing the existing bid strategy with one optimized for booked jobs imported from the CRM, with a cookie split so each homeowner sees one version. The heat-pump test is checked weekly against the Save on Energy program pages, and paused for review if the oil-to-heat-pump stream changes. Northern service areas, if any, are excluded from both tests and handled separately.

Regulators to know

For reference only; we do not give compliance advice:

How we approach an Ontario testing program

  1. Use the volume. Concurrent splits first, with written stopping rules.
  2. Coordinate tests so two experiments never compete for the same visitors.
  3. Check spend with holdouts, since large-market budgets give more room for credit-taking campaigns.
  4. Separate north from south in every report.

For plans, see pricing. To plan an Ontario test, call, text or email.

Frequently asked questions

With this much traffic, can I run several tests at once?

On different pages with separate audiences, yes. Two tests on the same visitors at the same time can interfere with each other, so either keep them on separate pages or design them together.

Do Save on Energy programs affect test results?

They can. The Energy Affordability Program describes its oil-to-heat-pump stream as available for a limited time, with no end date we could verify. If it closes during a heat-pump test, demand will shift, so check the program page before and during the test.

Is northern Ontario different?

Yes. Northern Ontario has longer, colder heating seasons than the south, so its stable test windows fall at different times. Report northern and southern areas separately.

Sources

  1. Save on Energy: Home Renovation Savings Program (2026-10-23)
  2. Save on Energy: Energy Affordability Program (2026-10-23)
  3. Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01 (2026-10-23)
  4. Technical Standards and Safety Authority (TSSA) (2026-10-23)