Testing and measuring HVAC marketing in Manitoba

Demand centred on Winnipeg

For a Winnipeg company, the busiest pages may reach a classic sample if you follow the sample size maths and test a bold change. Outside Winnipeg, plan for longer windows, qualified-call metrics and switchback designs from testing with few calls.

A company serving both Winnipeg and outlying towns should segment results by area. A page that works for city homeowners comparing quotes may not work for rural callers who need someone willing to drive.

A mixed fuel base

Statistics Canada's household heating table shows 52% of Manitoba households using natural gas and 33% electricity for primary heat in 2023. That is more balanced than Alberta or Saskatchewan, so:

• furnace pages carry the most volume
• electric heating and heat-pump pages have a substantial audience too
• fuel-specific landing pages are worth testing against a general heating page

The long season as a testing asset

A long, cold season means deep winter offers weeks of steady demand, good for repair and replacement page tests. The weak windows are, as everywhere, the transitions: the first serious cold and the spring fall-off. Cold snaps still shift the caller mix toward emergencies, so use concurrent splits where you can and a demand index where you cannot, as set out in seasonality controls.

Programs to log, as of October 2026

Manitoba has more active heating programs than its Prairie neighbours, which means more dates to watch:

• The Efficiency Manitoba Air Source Heat Pump Rebate is open.
• The Affordable Home Energy Program page is live, though its eligibility details were not re-confirmed in our sources.
• Manitoba signed the first Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program agreement in September 2025, according to Natural Resources Canada, offering no-cost retrofits to eligible lower-income households.
• The federal Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program closed to new Manitoba applicants on 31 July 2026.

Confirm current terms with Efficiency Manitoba or NRCan before mentioning a program in a variant. For test design, list every one of these dates that falls in the window.

A planning example for a Winnipeg company (illustrative)

Take a Winnipeg heating company with a busy furnace page and a quieter heat-pump page. The furnace page gets enough visitors in deep winter for a concurrent split on a bold change, say a new first screen that leads with same-week replacement estimates, run for six full weeks from mid-January. The heat-pump page does not, so it gets a switchback test instead, alternating two versions weekly over eight weeks in late spring, when cooling interest rises and heating demand falls away. Before either starts, the test plan lists every Efficiency Manitoba program date we can find for the window, and the heat-pump test is postponed if one falls inside it. Results for Winnipeg and for outlying towns are reported separately, even when the sample is pooled.

A second check is worth adding in Manitoba: because the heating season is long, there is time to repeat a winning furnace-page test the following winter. A result that holds in two separate seasons deserves far more trust than a single run.

Regulators to know

For reference only:

• Office of the Fire Commissioner, Inspection and Technical Services
• WCB Manitoba for workers' compensation
• Manitoba Consumer Protection Office

How we approach a Manitoba testing program

• Segment Winnipeg from the rest in every report.
• Test fuel-specific pages, since the mix supports more than one buyer.
• Schedule heat-pump tests between program dates, not across them.
• Judge on booked jobs where your CRM allows imports, as in Google Ads experiments and offline conversions.

For services, see CRO experiments. To plan a Manitoba test, call, text or email.